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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.73+4.28vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.78+1.92vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.58+1.85vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16-1.17vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-1.36vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.71-0.14vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.86-1.77vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania0.81-2.73vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-1.04-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28Christopher Newport University0.737.5%1st Place
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3.92U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.5%1st Place
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4.85Hampton University0.5810.2%1st Place
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2.83U. S. Naval Academy2.1627.8%1st Place
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3.64St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6817.5%1st Place
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5.86Fordham University0.715.7%1st Place
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5.23Old Dominion University0.867.2%1st Place
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5.27University of Pennsylvania0.817.3%1st Place
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8.13George Washington University-1.041.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Bendura | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 6.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.5% | 14.8% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Brown | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 27.8% | 22.6% | 18.3% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 17.5% | 19.7% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 20.5% | 10.7% |
| Sam Riley | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 4.7% |
| Margaux Cowles | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Jamie Lynch | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 68.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.