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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.81+9.18vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.20+6.54vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.20+5.65vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70+6.35vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.09+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.09+2.81vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.84+2.90vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-0.43vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.41vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.23-1.46vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.93-5.33vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.20-3.22vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.49-1.83vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.82-4.28vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.71-4.65vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.59-9.14vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.70-6.35vs Predicted
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18Marquette University0.84-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.18Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.54Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.65Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
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8.72Dartmouth College3.090.1%1st Place
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8.81University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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9.9Boston University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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8.54Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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5.67Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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8.78Brown University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.17George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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9.72Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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6.86Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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16.14Marquette University0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Pemberton | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Shane Riera | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Timothy Greenhouse | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% |
| Trevor Long | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Michael Munger | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| Conner Harding | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Shawn Harvey | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lindsey Baab | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 5.9% |
| Jack Bitney | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Matt Cappetta | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 3.1% |
| Mason Chrabaszcz | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 64.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.