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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+1.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.78+1.90vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.58+1.77vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.86+1.18vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-1.27vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.73-0.63vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.81-1.76vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.71-2.19vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-1.04-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84U. S. Naval Academy2.1628.4%1st Place
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3.9U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.4%1st Place
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4.77Hampton University0.5810.8%1st Place
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5.18Old Dominion University0.867.6%1st Place
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3.73St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6817.2%1st Place
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5.37Christopher Newport University0.737.1%1st Place
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5.24University of Pennsylvania0.817.3%1st Place
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5.81Fordham University0.715.5%1st Place
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8.16George Washington University-1.040.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 28.4% | 22.4% | 17.6% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.4% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 10.8% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 3.9% |
| Sam Riley | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 15.8% | 4.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 17.2% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 6.0% |
| Margaux Cowles | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 4.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Jamie Lynch | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 70.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.