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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+6.67vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+3.07vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.95+6.92vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.48vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+4.61vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.60+1.22vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston4.09-1.50vs Predicted
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8Hampton University3.02+1.34vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.71-2.27vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.39+2.09vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.82+2.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.71vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-5.17vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.55-3.00vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.78-4.68vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.12vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.61-2.41vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.43-6.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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5.07Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.92Fordham University2.950.0%1st Place
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5.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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7.22Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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5.5College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.34Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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6.73Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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12.09Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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13.87University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
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10.29U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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11.0Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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10.32George Washington University2.780.0%1st Place
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12.88SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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14.59Tulane University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.6Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.3% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 13.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 7.8% |
| Kyle Magno | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 16.6% | 22.8% |
| Maxwell Brill | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| James Jacob | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Sam White | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| John Lawless | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| James Mcavoy | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 32.8% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.