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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.60vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+3.30vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.73+6.16vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.14+3.19vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.75+3.79vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.83vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.27+3.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.25-1.17vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.32+1.51vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.82-1.13vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.60-1.38vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.65+1.36vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.90-4.82vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.52vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.08-0.20vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-6.48vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.20-9.76vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.34-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.3College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.16Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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7.19Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College2.750.1%1st Place
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6.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.78Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.83U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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10.51George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.87Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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13.36Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.18Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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13.48SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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14.8Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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7.24Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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13.94University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Augie Dale | 11.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Erik Weis | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Connor Bayless | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 18.5% | 31.8% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Scotti | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 17.6% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.