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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.59vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+3.29vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.96vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.73+4.88vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32+5.43vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.20+1.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+2.53vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.08+6.68vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.75-0.15vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.25-2.83vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.14-3.51vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-3.09vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.27-2.39vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.90-5.95vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.65-1.98vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.16vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.60-7.40vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.34-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.29College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.88Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.43George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.15Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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14.68Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.49Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.91Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.61Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.05Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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13.02Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.84SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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9.6Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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13.96University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Augie Dale | 12.0% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 34.2% |
| Erik Weis | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Connor Bayless | 9.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Caelan Watts | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 12.7% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 19.7% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Scotti | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.