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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.53vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.60+7.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+6.70vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.32+6.41vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+3.50vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.90+2.29vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.75-1.83vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.25-1.14vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.08+5.84vs Predicted
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10Tulane University1.65+3.28vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.75-2.04vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.73-2.69vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.14-5.82vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.53vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-8.26vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.27-5.17vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.20-9.68vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.34-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.66Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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10.41George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.5Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.29Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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5.17College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.86U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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14.84Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.28Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.96Dartmouth College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.31Roger Williams University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.18Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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13.47SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.83Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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7.32Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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13.93University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Augie Dale | 14.8% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bayless | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 11.9% | 18.6% | 32.7% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% |
| Erik Weis | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 16.9% | 17.4% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Scotti | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.