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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+10.18vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.90+6.61vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+6.20vs Predicted
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4Tulane University1.65+9.07vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.25+1.97vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.32+4.78vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.20+0.21vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.60vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.75-3.80vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.14-2.32vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.73-1.79vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.60-2.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-3.50vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.08+0.70vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-8.18vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.96vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.82-8.05vs Predicted
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18University of Miami2.08-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.18Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.61Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.2Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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13.07Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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10.78George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.21Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.2College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.68Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.21Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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9.99Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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14.7Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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14.04SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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8.95Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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11.48University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Erik Weis | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| Connor Bayless | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.6% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Augie Dale | 14.3% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 34.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 19.8% | 22.7% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Max Thompson | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.