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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.63vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+7.87vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.27+8.24vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.08+10.80vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.90+3.34vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.20+1.20vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.60+2.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.25-1.04vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.82-0.27vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.14-2.31vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.32-0.14vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.08+0.04vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.75-4.15vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-7.33vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.65-1.80vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.75-10.70vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.73-7.72vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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11.24Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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14.8Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.34Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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7.2Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.55Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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6.96U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.73Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.69Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.86George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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12.04University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College2.750.1%1st Place
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6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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13.2Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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5.3College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.28Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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13.79SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Gerard Eastman | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 37.4% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 7.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Connor Bayless | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| Max Thompson | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% |
| Erik Weis | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| Augie Dale | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 18.8% | 19.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.