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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+4.33vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.53vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.93vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.20+2.91vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.90+3.15vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+2.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+2.43vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60+1.27vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.73-0.15vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.14-2.53vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.08+3.78vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.27-1.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.25-6.27vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.34-0.34vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.32-4.59vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.75-7.13vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.12-2.29vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.91Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.15Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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8.55Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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8.85Roger Williams University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.47Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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14.78Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.95Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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13.66University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
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10.41George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.87Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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14.71Tulane University1.120.0%1st Place
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13.47SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 13.0% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 30.9% |
| Gerard Eastman | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% |
| Connor Bayless | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Scotti | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Erik Weis | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Harris Cram | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 18.9% | 28.6% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 17.4% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.