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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.14+6.46vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.75+6.99vs Predicted
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3Hampton University1.08+11.84vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.75+1.10vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.30vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.72vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.73+1.90vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.27+2.55vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.60+0.29vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-0.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.25-4.05vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.90-3.51vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.82-4.65vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.32-3.79vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.40vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.20-8.84vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.12-2.30vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.34-4.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.99Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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14.84Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.1College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.55Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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9.29Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.49Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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8.35Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.21George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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13.6SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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7.16Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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14.7Tulane University1.120.0%1st Place
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13.78University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McCoy | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Erik Weis | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 19.7% | 29.4% |
| Augie Dale | 14.7% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Connor Bayless | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Harris Cram | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 27.7% |
| Andrew Scotti | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.