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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+4.25vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.42vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.60+6.51vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.14+3.16vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.50+4.57vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+3.37vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.27+3.60vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.08+6.51vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-2.43vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.20-2.81vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.44+2.64vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.25-4.88vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.90-4.97vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.34-0.39vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.75-6.31vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.12-1.41vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.73-8.09vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.32-7.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.51Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.16Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.57Old Dominion University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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10.6Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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14.51Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.19Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.03Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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13.61University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
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8.69Dartmouth College2.750.1%1st Place
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14.59Tulane University1.120.0%1st Place
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8.91Roger Williams University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.24George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 13.2% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Alec Chicoine | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 28.3% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| Connor Bayless | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Scotti | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 18.0% |
| Erik Weis | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Harris Cram | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 19.9% | 26.6% |
| Daniel Petrovic | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Wade Wagner | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.