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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.20+7.78vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+3.15vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+6.30vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+4.12vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.73+2.10vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.58+5.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.40vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.98+1.62vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.49-1.01vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.68-2.62vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.39-0.43vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-6.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.35vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.81vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-2.35vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University2.10-6.67vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.35vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.64-6.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.78Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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5.15Stanford University3.1516.0%1st Place
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9.3Bowdoin College2.384.3%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University2.226.3%1st Place
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7.1Brown University2.737.9%1st Place
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11.86University of Pennsylvania1.582.1%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Naval Academy2.607.1%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University1.984.5%1st Place
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7.99College of Charleston2.496.0%1st Place
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7.38Roger Williams University2.688.4%1st Place
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10.57Boston University1.393.1%1st Place
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5.49Yale University2.7312.2%1st Place
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13.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.1%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.8%1st Place
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12.65Northeastern University1.591.9%1st Place
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9.33Jacksonville University2.105.1%1st Place
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15.65SUNY Maritime College-0.020.5%1st Place
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11.08University of Michigan1.642.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 16.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% |
| Jack Egan | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 10.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 49.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.