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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+6.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.51vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.10+6.16vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.49+4.07vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+3.12vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+3.07vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-0.03vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58+3.78vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.39+1.53vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64+0.80vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.38-1.57vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-6.51vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.66vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-1.42vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.15-9.79vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.98-6.46vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.47vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4Roger Williams University2.686.9%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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9.16Jacksonville University2.105.5%1st Place
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8.07College of Charleston2.497.3%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University2.225.9%1st Place
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9.07Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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6.97Brown University2.738.2%1st Place
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11.78University of Pennsylvania1.582.4%1st Place
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10.53Boston University1.394.2%1st Place
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10.8University of Michigan1.643.8%1st Place
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9.43Bowdoin College2.384.9%1st Place
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5.49Yale University2.7312.8%1st Place
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10.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.5%1st Place
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12.58Northeastern University1.591.8%1st Place
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5.21Stanford University3.1513.9%1st Place
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9.54Fordham University1.984.6%1st Place
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15.53SUNY Maritime College-0.021.0%1st Place
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13.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Jack Egan | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.6% | 10.6% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 13.6% | 50.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 17.4% | 16.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.