Race 11B

george-morris

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Peter Girard 5.6% 6.5% 5.6% 10.7% 9.5% 8.6% 11.3% 11.7% 12.7% 10.8% 5.1% 1.8% 0.1%
Austen Freda 5.8% 8.0% 8.3% 9.1% 8.0% 11.2% 12.8% 11.9% 10.4% 9.3% 4.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sophie Hibben 19.1% 18.4% 15.6% 12.9% 11.9% 9.0% 6.6% 3.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alden Grimes 18.8% 17.3% 15.5% 13.0% 11.0% 8.1% 7.8% 5.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Cameron Nash 9.7% 9.7% 11.0% 10.2% 11.2% 9.4% 11.1% 11.9% 6.9% 5.7% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Brian Kiley 0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.3% 4.0% 5.5% 10.3% 25.5% 27.7% 15.7%
John Piotti 4.3% 3.6% 5.1% 4.7% 6.4% 6.3% 9.0% 9.9% 13.7% 17.8% 14.4% 4.1% 0.7%
Casey Cabot 15.9% 14.5% 14.2% 11.5% 13.0% 12.1% 6.1% 6.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Bowen 8.2% 8.4% 7.8% 9.4% 10.5% 11.8% 11.0% 10.6% 12.0% 6.0% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Emery Wallace 3.6% 2.4% 4.2% 4.6% 4.4% 6.9% 7.2% 8.9% 15.0% 18.1% 14.4% 8.6% 1.7%
Jake Rizika 7.7% 9.3% 10.2% 10.6% 10.2% 11.6% 11.9% 11.0% 8.6% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Megan Blagden 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 3.3% 5.0% 9.5% 19.1% 34.6% 19.6%
Anna Strait 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% 1.8% 3.1% 8.2% 20.6% 61.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.