Race 12B

george-morris

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Austen Freda 6.4% 6.1% 9.0% 9.1% 9.3% 11.4% 10.0% 13.3% 12.0% 7.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Cameron Nash 8.8% 8.9% 9.4% 11.6% 10.2% 12.1% 12.6% 9.8% 7.8% 6.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1%
Brian Kiley 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 4.8% 6.0% 10.3% 25.0% 29.6% 16.5%
Peter Girard 6.0% 5.9% 7.4% 7.9% 9.2% 9.6% 11.3% 12.5% 13.3% 11.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Casey Cabot 14.7% 16.1% 14.0% 12.8% 11.5% 10.3% 8.0% 6.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Jake Rizika 9.1% 7.7% 9.8% 9.5% 11.6% 11.0% 11.2% 11.4% 8.7% 6.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Emery Wallace 3.9% 3.4% 3.6% 4.7% 5.4% 7.3% 6.8% 10.8% 11.8% 17.3% 17.9% 6.0% 1.1%
John Piotti 3.1% 4.6% 4.1% 5.2% 6.2% 7.0% 8.8% 11.4% 15.4% 17.0% 11.4% 5.5% 0.3%
Alden Grimes 16.8% 17.0% 16.5% 13.8% 10.0% 9.3% 8.8% 3.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Bowen 8.8% 7.7% 9.0% 10.0% 11.5% 10.6% 11.3% 9.8% 9.4% 8.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Sophie Hibben 20.7% 21.1% 14.9% 13.0% 11.4% 7.7% 6.0% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Megan Blagden 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.9% 3.3% 5.2% 7.9% 20.4% 34.0% 19.7%
Anna Strait 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 3.7% 8.5% 19.9% 62.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.