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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+6.28vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+9.87vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+5.94vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.15+1.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.37vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+3.24vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59+5.66vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.14vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.22-0.71vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-0.29vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.73-4.11vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-6.49vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-2.39vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-4.76vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-4.12vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.60-8.53vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.49-9.07vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.28Roger Williams University2.688.1%1st Place
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11.87University of Pennsylvania1.582.2%1st Place
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8.94Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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5.24Stanford University3.1513.6%1st Place
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13.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.9%1st Place
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9.24Bowdoin College2.385.2%1st Place
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12.66Northeastern University1.591.9%1st Place
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10.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.3%1st Place
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8.29Tufts University2.226.4%1st Place
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9.71Fordham University1.984.5%1st Place
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6.89Brown University2.738.1%1st Place
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5.51Yale University2.7312.2%1st Place
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10.61Boston University1.393.8%1st Place
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9.24Jacksonville University2.105.1%1st Place
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10.88University of Michigan1.643.6%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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7.93College of Charleston2.496.5%1st Place
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15.72SUNY Maritime College-0.020.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 6.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Jack Egan | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 16.1% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.