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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+4.64vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.40+2.06vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook2.59+0.73vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.68+2.00vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.64+3.78vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.05-0.90vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.77-1.47vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.51+0.92vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.48-4.93vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute0.81-1.64vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.43+0.17vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.05-1.90vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-2.83vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-2.14-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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4.06Fordham University2.400.2%1st Place
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3.73SUNY Stony Brook2.590.2%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University1.680.1%1st Place
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8.78Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.1SUNY Maritime College2.050.1%1st Place
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5.53University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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8.92Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.07Tufts University2.480.2%1st Place
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8.36Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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11.17Columbia University-0.430.0%1st Place
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10.1Princeton University0.050.0%1st Place
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10.17SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.37SUNY Maritime College-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Welker | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Hersam | 16.3% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 20.5% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Cooper | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 1.5% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 11.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 1.8% |
| Julien Guiot | 16.0% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hunt | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Pierre Casenave-Pere | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 28.2% | 12.4% |
| Zak Dasaro | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 15.9% | 17.9% | 4.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 19.8% | 3.7% |
| Matthew Daghir | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 75.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.