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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.49+7.00vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+7.30vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+5.78vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.15+1.22vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.70vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.05vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73+0.01vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.39+2.33vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.22-0.63vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.73-4.49vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.72vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.38-2.79vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.64-2.22vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-2.28vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-2.10vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.98-6.28vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.38vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0College of Charleston2.496.9%1st Place
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9.3Jacksonville University2.105.2%1st Place
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8.78Boston College2.205.2%1st Place
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5.22Stanford University3.1514.0%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy2.607.1%1st Place
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10.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.5%1st Place
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7.01Brown University2.739.0%1st Place
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10.33Boston University1.394.2%1st Place
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8.37Tufts University2.225.5%1st Place
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5.51Yale University2.7312.6%1st Place
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7.28Roger Williams University2.687.4%1st Place
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9.21Bowdoin College2.384.2%1st Place
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10.78University of Michigan1.643.6%1st Place
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11.72University of Pennsylvania1.582.8%1st Place
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12.9Northeastern University1.591.8%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University1.984.5%1st Place
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15.62SUNY Maritime College-0.020.7%1st Place
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13.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.0% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jack Egan | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 11.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 49.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.