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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+6.36vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+7.18vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.39+7.32vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+2.92vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.49+3.13vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.73-0.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+6.30vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.15-2.74vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59+3.79vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.48vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.20-1.93vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.78vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.10-3.58vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-2.11vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.22-6.82vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.64-5.25vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.43vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.98-8.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36Roger Williams University2.687.6%1st Place
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9.18Bowdoin College2.384.9%1st Place
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10.32Boston University1.394.0%1st Place
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6.92Brown University2.739.2%1st Place
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8.13College of Charleston2.496.2%1st Place
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5.57Yale University2.7312.3%1st Place
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13.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.9%1st Place
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5.26Stanford University3.1514.0%1st Place
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12.79Northeastern University1.592.1%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Naval Academy2.608.1%1st Place
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9.07Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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10.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.3%1st Place
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9.42Jacksonville University2.104.5%1st Place
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11.89University of Pennsylvania1.582.4%1st Place
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8.18Tufts University2.225.7%1st Place
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10.75University of Michigan1.643.5%1st Place
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15.57SUNY Maritime College-0.020.8%1st Place
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9.55Fordham University1.984.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Egan | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 12.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 48.7% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.