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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+4.24vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+5.38vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.49+5.10vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.20+5.04vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.10+4.49vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.70vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-0.12vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.93vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.64+1.77vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-0.21vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.38-1.60vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-1.66vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-4.84vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.73-8.61vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.38vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-3.36vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.34vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.24Stanford University3.1514.6%1st Place
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7.38Roger Williams University2.688.3%1st Place
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8.1College of Charleston2.496.7%1st Place
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9.04Boston College2.204.7%1st Place
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9.49Jacksonville University2.103.9%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy2.607.3%1st Place
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6.88Brown University2.737.8%1st Place
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9.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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10.77University of Michigan1.643.2%1st Place
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9.79Fordham University1.984.0%1st Place
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9.4Bowdoin College2.384.2%1st Place
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10.34Boston University1.393.5%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University2.226.9%1st Place
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5.39Yale University2.7312.7%1st Place
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11.62University of Pennsylvania1.582.5%1st Place
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12.64Northeastern University1.592.8%1st Place
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15.66SUNY Maritime College-0.020.9%1st Place
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13.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.6% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jack Egan | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 5.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 12.3% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 49.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.