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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+6.16vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+3.59vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.39vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.58+7.87vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.47vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15-0.79vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+1.91vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22+0.13vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.64+1.97vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-0.42vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.73-4.11vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.10-2.44vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.78vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.02+1.58vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.49-6.98vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-5.56vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.38-7.71vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.59-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Roger Williams University2.687.8%1st Place
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5.59Yale University2.7312.2%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy2.607.8%1st Place
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11.87University of Pennsylvania1.583.1%1st Place
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13.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.4%1st Place
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5.21Stanford University3.1512.8%1st Place
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8.91Boston College2.205.1%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University2.225.9%1st Place
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10.97University of Michigan1.643.2%1st Place
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9.58Fordham University1.985.2%1st Place
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6.89Brown University2.7310.1%1st Place
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9.56Jacksonville University2.104.2%1st Place
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10.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.8%1st Place
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15.58SUNY Maritime College-0.020.8%1st Place
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8.02College of Charleston2.496.2%1st Place
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10.44Boston University1.393.5%1st Place
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9.29Bowdoin College2.384.6%1st Place
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12.7Northeastern University1.592.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 16.4% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.8% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 49.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.