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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.63+2.50vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.63vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.50+3.34vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College2.88+1.32vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University0.98+4.73vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54-4.36vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.13-1.59vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-1.61vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.74-2.34vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-5.33vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.30-4.01vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-8.30vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.77-7.16vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.73vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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5.63Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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6.34Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.32Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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10.73Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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3.64University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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7.41Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.39Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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8.66Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.67William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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9.99George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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6.7Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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8.84Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.27Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.92St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halsey Richartz | 22.9% | 20.6% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 7.6% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 22.3% | 16.8% | 3.6% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 19.5% | 18.7% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| John Marzulli | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 36.0% | 32.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 21.4% | 59.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.