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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+4.18vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.98vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+2.38vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.68+3.22vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.48+6.51vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+2.79vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59+5.57vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58+3.67vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.99vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.49-2.24vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.70vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.04vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.98-3.38vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-4.58vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-4.45vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-5.50vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.54vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.22-9.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18Stanford University3.1514.5%1st Place
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6.98Brown University2.737.7%1st Place
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5.38Yale University2.7312.8%1st Place
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7.22Roger Williams University2.687.8%1st Place
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11.51Bowdoin College1.482.5%1st Place
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8.79Boston College2.205.8%1st Place
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12.57Northeastern University1.592.0%1st Place
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11.67University of Pennsylvania1.582.5%1st Place
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9.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.9%1st Place
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7.76College of Charleston2.497.8%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Naval Academy2.608.0%1st Place
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13.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.1%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University1.984.4%1st Place
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9.42Jacksonville University2.104.8%1st Place
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10.55University of Michigan1.643.8%1st Place
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10.5Boston University1.392.8%1st Place
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15.46SUNY Maritime College-0.020.9%1st Place
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8.04Tufts University2.226.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.5% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jack Egan | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 10.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 14.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 47.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.