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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Monmouth University0.98+9.59vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.61vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.63+0.44vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.54-0.29vs Predicted
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5Ocean County College2.88+0.46vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+0.46vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.48-1.51vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.30-0.08vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-3.67vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-5.40vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.74-5.25vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.13-7.24vs Predicted
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16Colgate University-0.28-2.66vs Predicted
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17St. John's College-0.84-3.03vs Predicted
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18Queen's University1.77-9.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.59Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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5.61Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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3.44University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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3.71University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.46Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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6.46Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.49Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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9.92George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.33Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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7.6William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.75Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.76Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.34Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.97St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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8.58Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Luisi | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 21.6% | 14.4% | 4.3% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 8.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 24.2% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 21.0% | 18.8% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 9.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 19.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.9% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| John Marzulli | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| David Coplon | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 10.0% | 36.8% | 34.3% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 25.3% | 56.5% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.