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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.90vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+3.02vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.15+1.85vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.68+2.78vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+2.70vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.73+0.34vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.48+3.74vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20+0.32vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.10-0.38vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.47vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.39-1.28vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.64-1.89vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-1.10vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.21vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.74vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.26vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.98-8.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9U. S. Naval Academy2.608.3%1st Place
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5.02Yale University2.7314.6%1st Place
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4.85Stanford University3.1515.8%1st Place
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6.78Roger Williams University2.687.6%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University2.226.5%1st Place
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6.34Brown University2.7310.0%1st Place
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10.74Bowdoin College1.482.8%1st Place
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8.32Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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8.62Jacksonville University2.105.1%1st Place
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12.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.6%1st Place
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9.72Boston University1.394.4%1st Place
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10.11University of Michigan1.643.5%1st Place
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11.9Northeastern University1.592.4%1st Place
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10.79University of Pennsylvania1.582.5%1st Place
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9.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.4%1st Place
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14.74SUNY Maritime College-0.020.9%1st Place
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8.76Fordham University1.984.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 14.6% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 15.8% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 5.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 9.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 6.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 49.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.