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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Ocean County College2.88+4.30vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.45vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.48+2.41vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.75vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.30+3.89vs Predicted
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8William and Mary2.13-0.48vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.77-0.46vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.54-6.26vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-2.64vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98-1.19vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.50-6.52vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-0.84-0.90vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.74-7.08vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.76vs Predicted
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18Columbia University2.13-10.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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3.45University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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6.41Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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5.75Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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9.89George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.52William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.54Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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3.74University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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8.36Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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10.81Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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6.48Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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14.1St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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8.92Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.24Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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7.49Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kennedy | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.7% | 19.2% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 20.7% | 17.8% | 16.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 23.1% | 14.8% | 3.8% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 23.6% | 62.0% |
| John Marzulli | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 37.9% | 29.8% |
| David Coplon | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.