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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.64vs Predicted
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2Ocean County College2.88+3.22vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.65vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.46vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+0.50vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+0.61vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University0.98+2.70vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.77-0.43vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.48-5.58vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.13-5.42vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.74-5.28vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-6.44vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.30-5.89vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.75vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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5.22Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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3.65University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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3.54University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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6.5Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.61William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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10.7Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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8.57Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.42Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.58Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.72Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.56Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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10.11George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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13.25Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.92St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 9.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 20.9% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.8% | 18.3% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 14.7% | 4.4% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| John Marzulli | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 0.8% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 17.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 35.6% | 32.6% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 58.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.