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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+5.38vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+6.76vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.68+3.88vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+3.65vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.88vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15-1.24vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.39+2.64vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.98+0.88vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.50vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.63vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.20-2.75vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.48-1.39vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-1.25vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.09vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.73-9.87vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.64-5.89vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.38Brown University2.738.9%1st Place
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8.76Jacksonville University2.105.1%1st Place
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6.88Roger Williams University2.688.2%1st Place
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7.65Tufts University2.225.8%1st Place
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6.88U. S. Naval Academy2.609.2%1st Place
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4.76Stanford University3.1516.6%1st Place
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9.64Boston University1.394.3%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.984.7%1st Place
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12.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.9%1st Place
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9.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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8.25Boston College2.206.1%1st Place
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10.61Bowdoin College1.482.5%1st Place
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11.75Northeastern University1.592.5%1st Place
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10.91University of Pennsylvania1.582.5%1st Place
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5.13Yale University2.7312.3%1st Place
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10.11University of Michigan1.643.8%1st Place
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14.54SUNY Maritime College-0.020.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 16.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 17.0% | 15.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 11.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 6.0% |
| Jack Egan | 12.3% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 3.4% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.