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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+2.69vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.50+4.27vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.65vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.52vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology1.85+3.38vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.48+0.53vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.74+1.65vs Predicted
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9William and Mary2.13-1.43vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.13-2.49vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.28+1.29vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.77-4.32vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College2.88-8.50vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University0.98-4.06vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.30-6.06vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.69University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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6.27Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.65Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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3.48University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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8.38Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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6.53Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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8.65Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.57William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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7.51Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.29Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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8.68Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.5Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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10.94Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.94George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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13.92St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 20.5% | 20.1% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.7% | 21.0% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| John Marzulli | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 12.3% | 34.7% | 33.7% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 9.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 24.5% | 16.2% | 4.4% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.7% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 22.8% | 58.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.