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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.74+1.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.16vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.14+2.11vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay0.56+4.55vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.06+2.32vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.19vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.33-2.59vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.53-1.78vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.56-0.45vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-4.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.61-2.77vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-3.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.22Stanford University3.740.4%1st Place
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3.16University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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5.11University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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8.55California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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6.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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4.41University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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6.22University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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8.55California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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5.75California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.85University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will La Dow | 39.2% | 26.6% | 16.9% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 21.2% | 21.7% | 19.2% | 15.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 20.8% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 11.1% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 20.8% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 20.1% | 33.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.