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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+6.54vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.43vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.73+3.37vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.73+1.19vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.43vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.58+5.14vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.15-1.97vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20+0.46vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.10-0.36vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.95vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-4.37vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-3.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-0.64vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-2.15vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-4.76vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-6.42vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.91-0.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54Tufts University2.227.1%1st Place
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9.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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6.37Brown University2.739.0%1st Place
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5.19Yale University2.7313.0%1st Place
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8.43Bowdoin College2.385.8%1st Place
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11.14University of Pennsylvania1.582.1%1st Place
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5.03Stanford University3.1514.5%1st Place
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8.46Boston College2.205.8%1st Place
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8.64Jacksonville University2.104.9%1st Place
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7.05U. S. Naval Academy2.607.9%1st Place
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6.63Roger Williams University2.689.7%1st Place
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8.99Fordham University1.985.2%1st Place
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12.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.7%1st Place
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11.85Northeastern University1.591.5%1st Place
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10.24University of Michigan1.643.3%1st Place
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9.58Boston University1.394.0%1st Place
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16.06SUNY Maritime College-0.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 13.0% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.5% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 23.5% | 7.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 19.1% | 5.2% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 2.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| Grace Wilson | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 76.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.