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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.50+5.31vs Predicted
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3Monmouth University0.98+7.62vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College2.88+1.23vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.63-1.48vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-1.20vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.77+0.63vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48-3.56vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.54-7.26vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.13-4.56vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-5.40vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.30-4.00vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.74-6.10vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-7.42vs Predicted
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17St. John's College-0.84-3.03vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-0.28-4.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.62Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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5.23Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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3.52University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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5.8Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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8.63Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.44Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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3.74University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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7.44Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.6William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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10.0George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.9Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.58Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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13.97St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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13.22Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Turchiano | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 20.7% | 14.7% | 3.9% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 21.1% | 21.7% | 15.1% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 20.1% | 17.5% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 17.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% |
| John Marzulli | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 7.2% | 23.5% | 58.1% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 35.0% | 33.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.