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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.52vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.51vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.54vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.56vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.77+3.54vs Predicted
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6American University2.24+1.11vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology1.85+1.22vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.48-1.63vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University0.98+1.71vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.30-0.03vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.74-3.39vs Predicted
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15William and Mary2.13-7.37vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.13-8.34vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.76vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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5.51Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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3.54University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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3.44University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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8.54Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.11American University2.240.1%1st Place
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8.22Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.1%1st Place
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6.37Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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10.71Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.97George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.61Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.63William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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7.66Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.24Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.93St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 8.9% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 21.3% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 23.1% | 19.7% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 20.4% | 14.3% | 4.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 10.3% | 1.9% |
| John Marzulli | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| David Coplon | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 35.5% | 32.2% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 21.8% | 59.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.