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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.05vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+4.51vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.50+4.02vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+3.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.23vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81-0.25vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.14+1.23vs Predicted
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8Hampton University3.02+0.56vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook2.59+1.34vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.12+2.41vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.31vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.16-3.53vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-4.20vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.96-1.54vs Predicted
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15Villanova University1.57-0.96vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-2.50vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.76vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.65-4.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.02Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.05George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.23Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.56Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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10.34SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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9.69University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.47Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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12.46Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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14.04Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.5Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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12.24SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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13.64Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 9.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Vir Menon | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% |
| Max Gillette | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 24.7% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| John Lawless | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.