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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.03vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.50+4.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+3.47vs Predicted
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4Hampton University3.02+4.55vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81+0.75vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41+1.22vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.14+1.17vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+0.83vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.52vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-2.51vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.48vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.16-3.56vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.57+0.91vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.65-0.49vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia2.12-2.82vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-2.46vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.72vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.96-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.98Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.55Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.22George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.83St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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9.52University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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7.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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8.44Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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13.91Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.51Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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13.54Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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12.28SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.6Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 13.9% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.2% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Charles Lomax | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Max Gillette | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 16.5% | 23.9% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 19.0% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 18.9% |
| John Lawless | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 9.6% |
| Vir Menon | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.