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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.11vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+3.99vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.25+5.08vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+3.15vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+3.23vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.42vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.63-0.54vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia2.12+4.11vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.65+4.71vs Predicted
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10Hampton University3.02-0.96vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-1.86vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-3.32vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.80-3.49vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-0.90vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.50-8.08vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.57-1.96vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.71-0.93vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook2.59-7.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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5.99Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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7.15George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.23Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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12.11University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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13.71Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.04Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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9.14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.51University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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13.1Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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14.04Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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16.07Christopher Newport University0.710.0%1st Place
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10.23SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 13.3% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 4.4% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 9.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Levie | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 18.8% | 17.0% |
| Bailey Hurst | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 53.2% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.