← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.73+4.58vs Predicted
-
2Columbia University2.13+5.26vs Predicted
-
3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.50vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.56vs Predicted
-
5Queen's University1.77+3.56vs Predicted
-
6American University2.24+1.09vs Predicted
-
7University of Virginia3.54-3.41vs Predicted
-
9Monmouth University0.98+1.71vs Predicted
-
10Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-1.74vs Predicted
-
11William and Mary2.13-3.47vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.48-6.58vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University1.74-5.17vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University1.30-4.92vs Predicted
-
17Colgate University-0.28-3.77vs Predicted
-
18St. John's College-0.84-4.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.58Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
-
7.26Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
5.5Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
-
3.44University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
-
8.56Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
-
7.09American University2.240.1%1st Place
-
3.59University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
-
10.71Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
-
8.26Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
-
7.53William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
6.42Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
-
8.83Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
-
10.08George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
-
13.23Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
-
13.91St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 23.4% | 19.8% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 20.8% | 18.9% | 17.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 21.4% | 13.6% | 5.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| John Marzulli | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 2.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 35.0% | 32.8% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 23.5% | 58.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.