← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.06+6.61vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University2.40+5.11vs Predicted
-
3Boston College2.58+4.14vs Predicted
-
4Brown University2.37+4.02vs Predicted
-
5Boston University1.07+7.98vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University2.89-1.02vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.82vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.63vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University1.51+1.63vs Predicted
-
10Yale University2.85-4.56vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-2.55vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University1.54-1.41vs Predicted
-
13Jacksonville University1.70-3.58vs Predicted
-
14Northeastern University1.07-1.91vs Predicted
-
15College of Charleston2.38-7.93vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.31vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.82vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan-0.26-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.61Bowdoin College2.066.4%1st Place
-
7.11Roger Williams University2.408.6%1st Place
-
7.14Boston College2.587.4%1st Place
-
8.02Brown University2.376.3%1st Place
-
12.98Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
-
4.98Stanford University2.8914.4%1st Place
-
7.82University of Pennsylvania2.166.5%1st Place
-
7.37U. S. Naval Academy2.286.6%1st Place
-
10.63Tufts University1.512.9%1st Place
-
5.44Yale University2.8513.3%1st Place
-
8.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.134.9%1st Place
-
10.59Fordham University1.543.3%1st Place
-
9.42Jacksonville University1.704.2%1st Place
-
12.09Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
-
7.07College of Charleston2.388.5%1st Place
-
13.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.4%1st Place
-
15.18SUNY Maritime College-0.130.8%1st Place
-
15.42University of Michigan-0.260.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 8.3% |
| Reade Decker | 14.4% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Clark Morris | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 4.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 18.2% | 13.4% |
| Luke Barker | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 21.5% | 32.2% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 20.8% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.