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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.16+7.47vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+3.09vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+2.91vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+2.78vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14+3.19vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+3.05vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook2.59+3.44vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41-0.83vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.25-1.20vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.63-3.32vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-3.52vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.87+1.35vs Predicted
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13Hampton University3.02-4.45vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.65-0.51vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-1.60vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.12-3.64vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.57-2.82vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.96-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.47Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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5.91Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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6.78Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.19Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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10.44SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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7.17George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.8SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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13.35University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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8.55Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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13.49Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.4Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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12.36University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.18Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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12.6Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Stevens | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 11.5% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Keen Butcher | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 15.1% | 17.9% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| Colin Suvak | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.3% |
| Max Gillette | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 17.7% | 24.2% |
| Vir Menon | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.