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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.95+5.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.54vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.89+3.99vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54+3.99vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+2.40vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-0.76vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.08+6.26vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39-2.82vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.82+5.09vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.22-4.03vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-2.95vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook1.41+0.43vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.89-2.67vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.86-3.76vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.52-3.25vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.44-3.81vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.89vs Predicted
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18Villanova University0.26-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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4.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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6.99Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.99Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.4George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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13.26Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.18Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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14.09University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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12.43SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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10.33Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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11.75Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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12.19SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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13.11Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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15.35Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Mintzias | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 14.1% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 11.2% |
| William Logue | 12.0% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katie Purcell | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 10.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 6.7% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 3.7% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.