← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+6.37vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University2.40+5.05vs Predicted
-
3Boston College2.58+4.13vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston2.38+3.16vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+3.62vs Predicted
-
6Boston University1.07+7.17vs Predicted
-
7Bowdoin College2.06+0.30vs Predicted
-
8Stanford University2.89-3.21vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+4.58vs Predicted
-
10Brown University2.37-2.04vs Predicted
-
11Yale University2.85-5.66vs Predicted
-
12Northeastern University1.07+0.02vs Predicted
-
13Jacksonville University1.70-3.40vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University1.51-3.24vs Predicted
-
15University of Pennsylvania2.16-7.05vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College-0.13-0.81vs Predicted
-
17Fordham University1.54-6.43vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan-0.26-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.37U. S. Naval Academy2.287.1%1st Place
-
7.05Roger Williams University2.407.4%1st Place
-
7.13Boston College2.587.8%1st Place
-
7.16College of Charleston2.387.3%1st Place
-
8.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.1%1st Place
-
13.17Boston University1.071.7%1st Place
-
7.3Bowdoin College2.067.6%1st Place
-
4.79Stanford University2.8915.5%1st Place
-
13.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.5%1st Place
-
7.96Brown University2.376.3%1st Place
-
5.34Yale University2.8513.9%1st Place
-
12.02Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
-
9.6Jacksonville University1.704.3%1st Place
-
10.76Tufts University1.512.5%1st Place
-
7.95University of Pennsylvania2.164.9%1st Place
-
15.19SUNY Maritime College-0.130.9%1st Place
-
10.57Fordham University1.543.7%1st Place
-
15.44University of Michigan-0.260.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 9.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 15.5% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 17.1% | 13.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.9% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Clark Morris | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 21.9% | 31.9% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 19.7% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.