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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.48vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+1.54vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+3.30vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.55vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73+0.78vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.13+1.50vs Predicted
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8American University2.24-0.96vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.77-0.48vs Predicted
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10William and Mary2.13-2.60vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.74-2.34vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-3.75vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.30-2.95vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University0.98-5.12vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.75vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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3.54University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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6.3Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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3.45University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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5.78Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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7.5Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.04American University2.240.1%1st Place
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8.52Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.4William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.66Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.25Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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10.05George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.88Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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13.25Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.89St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 21.0% | 21.1% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.9% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Billy Hluchan | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| John Marzulli | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 18.9% | 8.4% | 1.3% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 22.2% | 15.4% | 5.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 35.3% | 33.0% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 23.1% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.