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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+6.29vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.60vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+5.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.58vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.95+1.86vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+1.75vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.39-1.49vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.69-0.27vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.08+4.42vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook1.41+2.55vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.86-0.09vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-0.99vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.52-1.12vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-8.00vs Predicted
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15Villanova University0.26+0.57vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.88-8.77vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.82-2.78vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.6Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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7.75George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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5.51Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
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13.42Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.55SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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10.91University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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11.01Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.88Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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15.57Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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14.22University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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14.28Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 16.9% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 10.8% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 5.9% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Carrson Pearce | 9.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 18.9% | 38.6% |
| Maxwell Brill | 7.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| Townsend Morey | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.