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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.83vs Predicted
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2Hampton University1.08+11.89vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.89+4.56vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+1.60vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54+3.59vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.89+5.01vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12-0.43vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95-0.83vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.88vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-5.04vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+3.55vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.69-3.60vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook1.41-0.58vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-5.82vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.72-7.07vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.52-3.64vs Predicted
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17Villanova University0.26-1.30vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.82-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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13.89Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.56Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.6Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.59Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.01Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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6.57University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.17Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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4.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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14.55Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.4SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
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12.42SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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8.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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7.93George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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12.36Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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15.7Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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14.16University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 10.7% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 15.0% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Townsend Morey | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 21.0% | 20.9% |
| Kyle Comerford | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 4.7% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 12.4% | 16.5% | 42.1% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.