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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+6.49vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.22+4.34vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+1.89vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.08+9.31vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+2.82vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.54+2.55vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.39-1.42vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95-0.98vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-2.53vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89+1.06vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-2.51vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.69-3.65vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-7.44vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.52-2.14vs Predicted
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15Villanova University0.26+0.57vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-1.48vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.82-2.75vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.90-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.49Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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4.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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13.31Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.82George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.55Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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5.58Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.02Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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6.47University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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11.06Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
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5.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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11.86Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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15.57Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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14.52Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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14.25University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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13.89SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 14.2% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Comerford | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 19.5% | 35.8% |
| Townsend Morey | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 16.7% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.