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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+5.42vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+3.86vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+5.58vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+3.25vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.08+8.39vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+7.37vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.37vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.72-0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-2.52vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-5.04vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.89+0.12vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.54-2.99vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook1.41-0.59vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.34+1.24vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.95-7.92vs Predicted
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16Villanova University0.11-0.09vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.52-4.54vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.69-10.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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5.86Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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7.25Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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13.39Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.37Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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5.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.92George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.48University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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4.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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11.12Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.01Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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12.41SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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15.24University of Virginia0.340.0%1st Place
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7.08Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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15.91Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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12.46Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 9.8% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 7.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 15.4% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% |
| Ian Palmer | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 22.3% | 29.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 19.6% | 43.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Kyle Comerford | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.