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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.60vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+5.30vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+2.55vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.51vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.69+2.73vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+1.77vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.54+1.39vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook1.41+4.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-3.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-1.62vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.860.00vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.95-4.88vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.89-2.36vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-1.03vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.82-0.77vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.08-2.44vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.52-4.78vs Predicted
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18Villanova University0.11-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.3Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.55Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.51St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
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7.77George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.39Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.37SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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11.0University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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10.64Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.97Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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14.23University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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13.56Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.22Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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15.77Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| William Logue | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 16.9% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 5.5% |
| Peter Hogan | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 9.6% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 12.7% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 4.5% |
| Brian Tiernan | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.