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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.63+2.40vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.54vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.54vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.56vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.13+2.44vs Predicted
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6American University2.24+1.12vs Predicted
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7Monmouth University0.98+3.68vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology1.85+0.26vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.77-0.49vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.48-4.55vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.30-2.09vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-6.36vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.74-6.21vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.76vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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5.54Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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3.54University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.56Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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7.44Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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7.12American University2.240.1%1st Place
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10.68Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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8.26Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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8.51Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.45Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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9.91George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.64William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.79Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.24Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.92St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halsey Richartz | 23.8% | 20.5% | 15.8% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.4% | 16.8% | 18.2% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 15.0% | 4.4% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 9.7% | 2.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| John Marzulli | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 22.3% | 58.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.