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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.46vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.89+2.72vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+5.55vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.58+3.15vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.40+2.11vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+3.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.35vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+5.30vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.16-0.98vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.51+0.96vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-3.90vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.13+3.39vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.91vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.07-1.86vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.54-4.49vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.70-6.28vs Predicted
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170.68-4.01vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.85-12.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Bowdoin College2.067.0%1st Place
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4.72Stanford University2.8916.3%1st Place
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.7%1st Place
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7.15Boston College2.588.1%1st Place
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7.11Roger Williams University2.407.6%1st Place
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9.15Brown University2.224.5%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Naval Academy2.287.6%1st Place
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13.3Boston University1.071.6%1st Place
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8.02University of Pennsylvania2.165.7%1st Place
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10.96Tufts University1.513.1%1st Place
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7.1College of Charleston2.387.7%1st Place
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15.39SUNY Maritime College-0.130.8%1st Place
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13.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.3%1st Place
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12.14Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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10.51Fordham University1.543.2%1st Place
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9.72Jacksonville University1.704.0%1st Place
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12.990.681.2%1st Place
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5.47Yale University2.8512.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 16.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Peter Busch | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Clark Morris | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 17.1% | 41.4% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Jack Homa | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.