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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+6.54vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.82vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.95+4.26vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+1.60vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.89+5.82vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+7.46vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook1.41+5.55vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.82+6.25vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.85vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.54-1.13vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-4.47vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.44-2.68vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.49-4.39vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-8.53vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.69-6.93vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.08-2.25vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.52-4.65vs Predicted
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18Villanova University0.26-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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4.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.26Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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5.6Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.82Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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13.46Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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12.55SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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14.25University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.87Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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9.32University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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8.61George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.07SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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13.75Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.35Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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15.57Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 12.4% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 13.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 12.3% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 5.6% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
| Peter Hogan | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 4.8% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.