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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+6.56vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.80vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+2.82vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54+4.56vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.49+3.74vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-1.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-0.59vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.69-0.01vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.95-1.94vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30-3.82vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.44-1.88vs Predicted
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12Villanova University0.26+3.92vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.08+0.50vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.89-3.26vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-1.53vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.82-1.51vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook1.41-4.22vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.52-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.56Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.74George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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4.77St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Maritime College2.690.1%1st Place
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7.06Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.12University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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15.92Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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13.5Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.74Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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13.47Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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14.49University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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12.78SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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12.09Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| William Logue | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.3% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 14.3% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 45.5% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 11.7% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 16.4% | 9.7% |
| Katie Purcell | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 19.5% | 19.8% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 5.2% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.