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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+6.39vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+6.61vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+4.33vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+3.03vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.07+8.14vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.58+1.03vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.89-2.12vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22+1.27vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.85-3.59vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.70-0.32vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-3.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.97vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-0.83vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.16-5.99vs Predicted
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150.68-1.95vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.51-5.19vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.64vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.54-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy2.287.2%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.3%1st Place
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7.33Bowdoin College2.067.4%1st Place
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7.03Roger Williams University2.408.6%1st Place
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13.14Boston University1.071.4%1st Place
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7.03Boston College2.588.8%1st Place
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4.88Stanford University2.8915.2%1st Place
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9.27Brown University2.224.1%1st Place
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5.41Yale University2.8513.2%1st Place
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9.68Jacksonville University1.703.8%1st Place
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7.2College of Charleston2.388.5%1st Place
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13.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.1%1st Place
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12.17Northeastern University1.071.8%1st Place
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8.01University of Pennsylvania2.166.3%1st Place
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13.050.681.7%1st Place
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10.81Tufts University1.512.3%1st Place
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15.36SUNY Maritime College-0.130.7%1st Place
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10.67Fordham University1.542.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 11.8% |
| Peter Busch | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 15.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 6.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jack Homa | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 11.8% |
| Clark Morris | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Luke Barker | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 41.9% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.