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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.54vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.54vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.56vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.77+4.47vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.48+1.45vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University0.98+4.74vs Predicted
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7American University2.24+0.05vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.13-0.55vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-0.83vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.63-6.52vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.30-2.04vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-6.38vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.74-6.17vs Predicted
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17St. John's College-0.84-3.03vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-0.28-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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5.54Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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3.56University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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8.47Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.45Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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10.74Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.05American University2.240.1%1st Place
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7.45Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.17Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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3.48University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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9.96George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.62William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.83Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.97St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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13.18Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 11.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.4% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 22.3% | 14.2% | 4.3% |
| Billy Hluchan | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| David Coplon | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Halsey Richartz | 21.6% | 21.4% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 17.7% | 10.8% | 2.4% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| John Marzulli | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 23.6% | 58.3% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.0% | 35.0% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.