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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+2.59vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.53vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.51vs Predicted
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4American University2.24+3.08vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.77+3.54vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63-2.60vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology1.85+1.19vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.74+0.64vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48-3.60vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.98-0.25vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.13-4.51vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-5.32vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.30-4.93vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.28-3.77vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.53Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.51Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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7.08American University2.240.1%1st Place
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8.54Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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3.4University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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8.19Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.1%1st Place
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8.64Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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10.75Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.49Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.68William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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10.07George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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13.23Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.9St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.9% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 8.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.7% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 0.4% |
| Halsey Richartz | 21.7% | 21.4% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| John Marzulli | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 21.5% | 15.7% | 3.7% |
| David Coplon | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 15.8% | 18.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 35.3% | 32.6% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 58.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.