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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+8.09vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+5.17vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+4.49vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+3.18vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+0.54vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.28+1.33vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38+0.13vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.26+3.46vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+4.19vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.70-0.50vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.51-0.05vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.53vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.89-8.34vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-5.59vs Predicted
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150.68-2.07vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.13-0.68vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.05vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.17-6.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.09Brown University2.224.7%1st Place
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7.17Boston College2.588.0%1st Place
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7.49Bowdoin College2.066.7%1st Place
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7.18Roger Williams University2.407.8%1st Place
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5.54Yale University2.8512.8%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Naval Academy2.287.5%1st Place
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7.13College of Charleston2.387.4%1st Place
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11.46Northeastern University1.262.6%1st Place
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13.19Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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9.5Jacksonville University1.704.5%1st Place
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10.95Tufts University1.513.0%1st Place
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8.47University of Pennsylvania1.775.6%1st Place
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4.66Stanford University2.8915.7%1st Place
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8.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.6%1st Place
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12.930.681.4%1st Place
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15.32SUNY Maritime College-0.130.6%1st Place
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13.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.1%1st Place
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11.26Fordham University1.172.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Peter Busch | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Clark Morris | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Reade Decker | 15.7% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Homa | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 10.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 43.4% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.