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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+6.24vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+6.49vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+5.35vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.58+3.10vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.22+4.07vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.47vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38+0.22vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40-0.88vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.89-4.19vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.51+0.86vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.26+0.53vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.70-2.38vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.85-7.58vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.17-2.77vs Predicted
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150.68-2.06vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.12vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.07-3.62vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.13-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.287.2%1st Place
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8.49University of Pennsylvania1.775.4%1st Place
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.7%1st Place
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7.1Boston College2.588.0%1st Place
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9.07Brown University2.225.1%1st Place
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7.47Bowdoin College2.066.5%1st Place
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7.22College of Charleston2.388.8%1st Place
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7.12Roger Williams University2.407.8%1st Place
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4.81Stanford University2.8914.9%1st Place
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10.86Tufts University1.513.2%1st Place
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11.53Northeastern University1.262.4%1st Place
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9.62Jacksonville University1.704.5%1st Place
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5.42Yale University2.8513.2%1st Place
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11.23Fordham University1.172.3%1st Place
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12.940.682.1%1st Place
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13.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.9%1st Place
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13.38Boston University1.071.6%1st Place
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15.3SUNY Maritime College-0.130.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter Busch | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 14.9% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.2% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Jack Homa | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 12.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 14.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 17.4% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.