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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.73+4.59vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.77+6.39vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.54vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.60vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology1.85+3.24vs Predicted
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7American University2.24+0.10vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.13-0.63vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.48-2.57vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.63-6.59vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.98-0.23vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.30-2.05vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-5.37vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.74-6.14vs Predicted
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17St. John's College-0.84-3.03vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-0.28-4.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.39Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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3.54University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.6Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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8.24Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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7.1American University2.240.1%1st Place
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7.37Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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6.43Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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3.41University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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10.77Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.95George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.63William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.86Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.97St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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13.15Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 21.8% | 19.1% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.1% | 21.2% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 22.8% | 15.1% | 4.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| John Marzulli | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 23.0% | 58.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 36.7% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.