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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.55vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.29vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+2.60vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.77+4.50vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University0.98+5.68vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.48-0.63vs Predicted
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8William and Mary2.13-0.55vs Predicted
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9American University2.24-1.88vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.13-2.62vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.30-1.01vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology1.85-3.71vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.74-4.14vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.54-10.23vs Predicted
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16Colgate University-0.28-2.77vs Predicted
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18St. John's College-0.84-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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3.29University of Pennsylvania3.630.3%1st Place
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5.6Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.5Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.68Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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6.37Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.45William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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7.12American University2.240.1%1st Place
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7.38Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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9.99George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.29Rochester Institute of Technology1.850.0%1st Place
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8.86Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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3.77University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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13.23Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.9St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Halsey Richartz | 25.5% | 20.9% | 15.1% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 3.6% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hluchan | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 17.1% | 9.4% | 1.9% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| John Marzulli | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 19.4% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 11.2% | 36.0% | 32.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 21.4% | 59.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.