← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+7.34vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy2.28+5.18vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College2.06+4.26vs Predicted
-
4Boston College2.58+3.01vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University2.89-0.14vs Predicted
-
6Northeastern University1.26+5.37vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.54+3.54vs Predicted
-
8Yale University2.85-2.78vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston2.38-1.91vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.40-2.96vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.72vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.57vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University1.27-2.22vs Predicted
-
14Jacksonville University1.70-4.55vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.07-1.91vs Predicted
-
16Brown University2.22-6.95vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan-0.26-1.53vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Maritime College-0.13-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.134.9%1st Place
-
7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.287.2%1st Place
-
7.26Bowdoin College2.067.5%1st Place
-
7.01Boston College2.588.0%1st Place
-
4.86Stanford University2.8915.8%1st Place
-
11.37Northeastern University1.262.4%1st Place
-
10.54Fordham University1.542.9%1st Place
-
5.22Yale University2.8514.2%1st Place
-
7.09College of Charleston2.387.5%1st Place
-
7.04Roger Williams University2.407.6%1st Place
-
13.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.5%1st Place
-
8.43University of Pennsylvania1.776.1%1st Place
-
10.78Tufts University1.272.8%1st Place
-
9.45Jacksonville University1.704.1%1st Place
-
13.09Boston University1.071.5%1st Place
-
9.05Brown University2.224.9%1st Place
-
15.47University of Michigan-0.260.4%1st Place
-
15.1SUNY Maritime College-0.130.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 15.8% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.2% | 17.3% | 14.3% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Porter Bell | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 8.5% |
| Mason Stang | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 38.8% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 21.4% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.