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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+6.83vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.77+4.99vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.60+8.74vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+3.89vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.91+5.17vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.24-0.82vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.39+5.21vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.70+3.01vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-2.26vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.73-2.83vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.37-2.49vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.60-4.12vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.71-2.14vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University2.21-1.44vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-7.02vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-3.13vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.53-9.11vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College1.26-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.83Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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11.74Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.89Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.17Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
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5.18Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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12.21Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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6.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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7.17Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.51University of Rhode Island3.370.1%1st Place
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7.88Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.86Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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12.56Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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12.87Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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7.89Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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15.52Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.9% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Josh Dochoda | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hermus | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Walter Florio | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 11.7% |
| Dana Rohde | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Frank Reeg | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 11.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Baskin | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.